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The Government is hopeful McGrath will be appointed to some type of financial portfolio. Composite via Alamy

Explainer: Why we could see an election here before Ireland's next EU Commissioner is in place

There is still a long road ahead before the new commissioners can begin their work on new laws and enforcing regulation.

ON TUESDAY MORNING the proposed makeup of the next European Commission will be announced as President Ursula von der Leyen outlines who she wants in each portfolio.

This week, the announcement was delayed over formal processes that had yet to be done in Slovenia. This added to the already elongated process of approving and confirming Commissioners and their portfolios.

With speculation rife that the Taoiseach is planning a November election, it’s likely that Ireland will get a new batch of TDs before the new Commissioner takes his seat. 

There is still a long road ahead before the new commissioners can begin their work on new laws and enforcing regulation. The nominated politicians will have to survive two votes of confidence and a grilling by MEPs before they can get to work.

The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, and the chairpeople of each political group will be briefed by von der Leyen on her desired Commission on Tuesday morning. 

The meeting will give time for each political group to decide and debate amongst themselves whether they will approve the proposal or not at a formal sitting of the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

At this point, MEPs will be looking for diversity at the new Commission. This includes the political representation, the types of people appointed to crucial roles – such as technology or trade regulation – and gender balance.

The politicians use the vote to accept or reject the nominees that have been named by member states. The ballot was due to take place next week in France but, due to the delay announced last Tuesday, it have been postponed and a new date had yet to be set.

Von der Leyen made gender balance a crucial element of her new Commission by requesting that member states nominate both a man and a woman in July. Only one member state followed the request, as the rest claimed the Commission President was overstepping her authority when making it, under the EU treaties.

The Irish Government chose to nominate former finance minister Michael McGrath only, for the same reason as other member states. The government said that naming a second candidate would be unfair to McGrath since he had to leave a role as a Cabinet minister to go forward for the EU role.

It’s understood that the Government is hopeful Ireland will retain some type of financial portfolio.

But politics could influence this decision, as Irish MEPs from McGrath’s political group, Renew, opposed von der Leyen in July. Renew’s less-than-magnificent results in recent elections might also dampen its influence on von der Leyen’s thinking. 

Despite this, McGrath has been viewed as a competent candidate in Brussels and has been engaging with stakeholders since his nomination.

Von der Leyen’s decision has, so far, been a secret to everyone apart from a small team of her advisors.  Politico has taken an educated guess that McGrath could be appointed as the Commissioner for Innovation.

While the vague title might make the role seem a less important job, it would likely please the former finance minister as he would be in charge of the next EU budget -  making sure that it is spent well and properly.

It has been also reported that the Socialists and Democrats group, of which Dublin’s Labour MEP Aodhán Ó Ríordáin is a member, are unhappy with the current nominees as only four members of its political grouping have been named as candidates for roles.

But it is largely expected that MEPs will vote in favour of von der Leyen’s Commission next week.

The next phase will involve each relevant committee posing questions to the new Commissioners on how they plan to conduct themselves in the role and what skills they bring to the table.

These meetings, known as Confirmation Hearings, will be conducted in public in Brussels during October. Once the hearings are complete, the chairs of each committee will draft a report summarising the group’s opinion of the performance of the candidate.

MEPs will then vote to approve the new Commission, some time in November. This vote is used to confirm that the MEPs believe the correct Commissioner has been assigned to the correct portfolio.

In short, this means the work of the Commissioners might not get going until the beginning of December, at the earliest, just before the Christmas break.

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